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After enduring Worst drought Almost a century later, cold attacks continue, and areas within Brazil’s agricultural areas are preparing for further adversity, as the La Niña phenomenon could lead to even drier conditions later this year.
In Caconde, a small mountain town in the state of São Paulo, third-generation coffee grower Ademar Pereira, 44, loses half of his crops this year as many of his family’s modest plantation shrubs lose to the cold. I presume.
“It will already be a very small harvest, and with the frost it got worse,” he said. “Many people have lost everything.”
Brazil is an agricultural powerhouse and a major exporter of commodities such as corn, sugar, orange juice and meat, but due to this year’s weather turmoil coffee Supplying sugar in the international market while fueling bullish corn traders.
“Brazil is a huge exporter of coffee and sugar in particular.
Kona Haque, an analyst at Trader ED & F Man, said:
South American countries are the world’s largest producers and exporters of coffee, with initial estimates of crop loss next year in the range of 10-50% of previous forecasts, pushing up prices. Arabica’s benchmark price is off the July peak of about $ 2.20 per pound at $ 1.84, but more than 50% higher than it was a year ago.
The lack of dry soil rainfall throughout the southern and central states, which are home to many of the country’s agricultural production, has been associated with the destruction of the Amazon by some scientists.
“By deforesting parts of this area, we can remove the moisture that helps form rain in the central west, southeast and south. [of Brazil]”. Last week, Lincoln Muniz Alves, a researcher at the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), who contributed to the United Nations’ groundbreaking report on climate change, said.
Exacerbating dryness, an unusual continuum of polar air masses has moved across territorial zones in recent weeks, pushing mercury below zero in some places.
Agricultural experts are increasingly concerned that the recurrence of La Niña could extend the drought situation to the New Year. They fear that this can prevent the flowering of coffee trees that have already been weakened by drought and frost.
“The worst scenario is, after a bit of rain, there’s three weeks of dry weather, flowers fall and production goes out,” said Rabobank analyst Carlos Mela.
Previously, La Niña, a meteorological phenomenon caused by the cooling of the Pacific Ocean in late 2020, was due to drought conditions in the United States and Latin America and increased rainfall in Australia.
Various meteorological organizations 50 percent chance It has occurred for the second consecutive year. Tirso Meirelles, vice president of the State of São Paulo Agricultural and Livestock Federation (Faesp), said this was a concern.
“Depending on the intensity, the spring and summer climates that produce grain can be dry. This can really affect our agricultural production,” he said.
Brazil is the second largest exporter of corn, which is primarily used for livestock feed, and many of its producers are also affected by drought and frost. South American-focused grain consultant Michael Cordonier said analysts have downgraded production forecasts.
Due to the drought, farmers in some states planted more than a month later than usual, but the frost in July killed corn at a critical stage of growth, he said. Corn futures soared earlier this year, with Chicago prices jumping to a nearly eight-year high of $ 7.75 per bushel in May, but have now fallen to about $ 5.66 due to good weather in the United States.
“Everyone is their own [Brazil corn production] “Numbers,” he added, adding that production, which was generally above 100 million tonnes before the frost, was about 20 percent lower.
In Brazil, weather damage is spilling over to both farmers and consumers. According to Cordonier, the shortage of corn in the livestock feed industry has forced them to switch to imports, with regular overseas purchases of around 1 million tonnes expected to increase to 3.5-4 million tonnes this year. It has been.
Welber Baral, founder of the BMJ consultant, said the corn shortage would put further pressure on food prices. Brazil’s annual inflation reached a five-year high of 8.6% in mid-July.
Frost is also expected to hurt the world’s top producers of orange and sugar production and reduce crop quality. “If you use two oranges to make a glass of juice, you’ll need three, which reduces liquid productivity,” says Meirelles of Faesp.
Extreme weather also reduced pasture for grazing and increased reliance on animal feeds, which in turn could push up prices for domestic beef and milk, he added.
Higher prices are good news for some growers, but they provide little comfort for crop-destroyed growers. In Caconde, coffee grower Pereira is afraid of the impending dry weather, which is likely to result from another La Niña match.
“Weather forecasts are not encouraging. This year’s water stress was worse than in 2020, and this scenario was exacerbated by frost,” he said.
The government will allocate R $ 1.32 billion ($ 250 million) to help coffee growers who have suffered crop losses due to frost.
But Pereira, who produces specialty beans for export, is worried about the future. “I haven’t done anything else in my life, but I’m producing coffee,” he said.
Additional report by Carolina Pulse in São Paulo
Weather shocks in Brazil ripple across global commodities markets Source link Weather shocks in Brazil ripple across global commodities markets
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