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Bitcoin retained its intraday bullish bias Friday just ahead of its $6 billion options expiry.
In retrospect, options are contracts that give traders the right to purchase or sell an asset at a specified price before a certain expiration date. Data on ByBt.com shows that there is over 100,000 BTC worth of options set to expire on Friday, March 26, across multiple cryptocurrency exchanges.
As bears and bulls battle one another to claim their’s preferable strike rate, the bitcoin spot market expects to undergo major price swings. And that is happening already ahead of the London opening bell.
Bitcoin…
…surged 4.9 percent to $53,524 (data from Coinbase) after falling to nearly $50,000 in the previous trading session. The cryptocurrency’s move went against the odds of extended downside declines to match the put options’ strike price, which is near $47,500 and $40,000. Meanwhile, a majority of call options expiring this Friday eyed the $55,000-60,000 range.
The general call-to-put ratio showed bulls in control, with bets over a bitcoin price rise will leaning 11 percent higher than those with a negative price outlook. That increased the likelihood of the BTC/USD spot rate hitting $55,000, the second-most favorable strike price among bulls.
Bitcoin eyes a recovery towards $55,000. Source: ByBt.com
The Bitcoin options market propelled the spot one higher, similarly after the January contract expiration. The month saw $4 billion worth of record options expiring, with a bullish call-to-put ratio outlook. The bitcoin price surged by more than 100 percent after that.
Options open interest has also soared this year, rising from $5 billion at the beginning of this year to about $14 billion at press time.
Technical Confluence
Bitcoin’s daily timeframe technical indicators also showed a higher probability of price hitting $55,000, albeit without providing a concrete deadline.
Bitcoin hints at a bullish flag formation. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
The cryptocurrency consolidates lower in a falling channel that appears like a Bull Flag. In retrospect, bull flags appear during strong uptrends as a period of consolidation, hinting further moves higher should the price break bull off their upper trendline resistance. Bitcoin is approaching the upper resistance trendline, which roughly sits inside the $55,000-56,000 area.
Conversely, if the price swings in favor of bears, it could risk invalidating the Bull Flag with a break below its support trendline. Then, the prospect of Bitcoin hitting $47,500 would become higher on Friday.
Photo by Delphine Ducaruge on Unsplash
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